Reliable 2024 Electoral College Prediction. Only seats rated safe by a large majority of. So here is how our model translates polls and the other inputs it uses into probabilities in the electoral college and the popular vote in every state — plus some nightmare scenarios like a repeat of the 2000 florida recount.
An interactive electoral map derived from 538’s probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map as a starting point to.
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